Archives: National Security Studies Program Policy Papers

The Conflict in Syria

  • By
  • Brian Fishman,
  • New America Foundation
  • and Radha Iyengar, RAND Corp.
March 19, 2013

This paper concludes that the most likely medium-run end state to the conflict in Syria is de facto partition of the country into a region controlled by the current regime and another region divided among various rebel factions. Of the potential end states analyzed here, de facto partition is not only the most likely, it is also the worst for U.S. interests. The analysis is based on a series of decision matrices that are standard in the Multi-Attribute Decision Making approach, a method of systematically comparing objectives across a range of national interests.

The State of Global Jihad Online

  • By Aaron Y. Zelin, Richard Borow Fellow, Washington Institute for Near East Policy
February 4, 2013

More than 11 years after the attacks of 9/11 and nearly a decade since the rise of popular online jihadi Internet forums, there is strikingly little empirical research on the manner in which jihadi activists use the Web to propagate their cause. Whereas researchers and policy analysts have systematically collected and analyzed the primary source material produced by al-Qaeda and its allies, very little work has been done on the conduits through which that information is distributed—and even to what extent anyone is accessing that propaganda other than counterterrorism analysts.

Enhancing India-Pakistan Trade

  • By Nisha Taneja, Indian Council for Research on International Economic Relations (ICRIER), New Delhi
January 29, 2013

The trade normalization process between India and Pakistan will undoubtedly open new trade opportunities. This study assesses trade possibilities between the two countries, examines the physical and regulatory impediments to realizing the trade potential, and suggests how the trade potential can be realized. The main findings and recommendations are summarized below.

India-Pakistan Trade Relations

  • By Mohsin Khan, Senior Fellow, Rafik Hariri Center for the Middle East, Atlantic Council
January 29, 2013

One of the more significant recent economic developments in South Asia was the revival of trade talks between India and Pakistan in 2011. A question frequently raised is why India and Pakistan trade so little with each other despite the existence of common history, language, culture, and long borders. Economic theory and evidence from around the world would predict that trade between the two largest economies in South Asia would be far greater than its current level of around $2.5 billion.

Ecological Cooperation in South Asia: The Way Forward

  • By Saleem H. Ali, University of Vermont and University of Queensland, Australia
January 14, 2013

The greatest loss of human life and economic damage suffered by South Asia since 2001 has not been due to terrorism and its ensuing conflicts, but rather due to natural disasters ranging from the 2005 Kashmir earthquake and the Indus floods of 2010 to seasonal water shortages and drought.  Although such calamities themselves might not be preventable, their human impact can certainly be mitigated. This report argues that such mitigation of environmental stresses is possible only through regional approaches to ecological cooperation.

PATCON

  • By J.M. Berger
May 21, 2012

Since September 11, 2001, more than 300 U.S. residents have been prosecuted for crimes related to homegrown terrorism. About half were targeted by law enforcement using infiltration techniques – confidential informants, undercover operations, or, in some cases, both.[i]

Russian Roulette

  • By
  • Brian Fishman,
  • New America Foundation
May 18, 2012

The strategic partnership agreement between the United States and Afghanistan that was signed by Presidents Barack Obama and Hamid Karzai on May 1, 2012 did not address several critical questions, the most important of which is whether, and to what degree, the international community will continue to fund the Afghan government after 2014. Addressing the Afghan government’s budget needs is to be a major focus of the upcoming Chicago summit.

America’s Pent-Up Demand

  • By
  • Patrick C. Doherty,
  • New America Foundation
March 26, 2012

Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke is looking hard for demand. Without a “more-rapid expansion of production and demand from producers and consumers,” the Fed chairman does not see the recent employment gains as “sustainable.” That’s an understatement.

The 80 Percent Solution

  • By Thomas F. Lynch III
February 2, 2012

With the death of Osama bin Laden in May 2011, the United States and Western governments scored a major but still underappreciated victory in the nearly decade-and-a-half-old war against al-Qaeda. Bin Laden’s death did not eliminate all of the features of al-Qaeda that make it dangerous as a factor in terrorism internationally. Its role in assisting regional jihadist groups in strikes against local governments and by inspiring “lone wolf” would-be martyrs in acts of violence will remain with us for many years.  Yet the manner in which U.S.

Moving Toward Transition

  • By Christian Dennys and the Peace Training and Research Organization
October 7, 2011

The New America Foundation (NAF) and Peace Training and Research Organisation (PTRO) have released the findings from a joint public opinion survey in southern Afghanistan.

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